Friday, July 5, 2013

Here's The Worst Case Scenario For Markets In Today's Jobs Report

Today we get the US Non-Farm Payrolls report, AKA the jobs report.

Expectations are for 165K new jobs, and for the unemployment rate to fall from 7.6% to 7.5%.

Citi's Steven Englander looks at some possible ranges of numbers what we could get, and ponders what they might mean for markets:

A big risk is the unemployment rate. Consensus is 7.5%, albeit with a chunk of forecasters at 7.6%. If Citi?s forecast of 7.4% is hit, there will likely be significant pressures on fixed income markets. The Fed has not been explicit enough on what would make 6.5%? a threshold, rather than a trigger, so an indication that we are getting there faster than expected will put pressure on fixed income markets and support USD.????

On the weak side the we think that payrolls below 140k or 150k may raise questions that tapering will not be so quick, and 7.7% (and to a lesser degree 7.6%) would suggest that labor force re-entry will be a significant factor keeping the unemployment rate from falling too fast. In that respect payrolls at 180k and UR at 7.7% would probably lead to some unwinding of tapering fears.

For markets the worst case scenario would be if Citi's 7.4% unemployment rate target is hit, but that the job creation comes in on the weak side, in the range of 140K or below.

Then you're looking at a situation where the unemployment rate is getting closer to the Fed's target thresholds, and yet you're still not seeing anything robust growth-wise.

Source: http://www.businessinsider.com/non-farm-payrolls-report-worse-case-scenario-2013-7

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Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Global shares directionless amid poor Europe data

People walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo Monday, July 1, 2013. Global stocks swung between gains and losses Monday after China's manufacturing weakened in June amid a credit crunch. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent to 13,852.50. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

People walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo Monday, July 1, 2013. Global stocks swung between gains and losses Monday after China's manufacturing weakened in June amid a credit crunch. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent to 13,852.50. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

People walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo Monday, July 1, 2013. Global stocks swung between gains and losses Monday after China's manufacturing weakened in June amid a credit crunch. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent to 13,852.50. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

People walk by an electronic stock board of a securities firm in Tokyo Monday, July 1, 2013. Global stocks swung between gains and losses Monday after China's manufacturing weakened in June amid a credit crunch. Tokyo's Nikkei 225 rose 1.3 percent to 13,852.50. (AP Photo/Koji Sasahara)

(AP) ? Global shares struggled to find direction Tuesday as indications Europe's economy is still in trouble competed with hopes that the U.S. central bank wasn't quite finished with its stimulus.

Industrial producer prices fell 0.3 percent in May in the 17 European Union countries that use the euro, Eurostat reported Tuesday. While that shows costs are falling, it also indicates manufacturing activity remains weak.

Meanwhile, Spain announced Tuesday that the number of people registered as unemployed dropped for a fourth consecutive month in June ? but the country has a long way to go to bring its jobless rate down to normal levels. It currently stands at 27.2 percent.

A separate report on Monday showed the unemployment rate in the eurozone was at 12.1 percent in May, its highest level ever.

"While the European economy appears to be starting to show flickers of recovery particularly in Spain and Italy where the manufacturing sector appears to be showing signs of coming off life support, the unemployment picture remains disturbingly high," said Michael Hewson, a market analyst at CMC Markets UK.

By midday in Europe, France's CAC-40 was down 0.9 percent to 3,735 while the DAX in Germany was off 1.2 percent to 7,885. The FTSE index of British shares dropped 0.6 percent at 6,269.

By contrast, lackluster data in the U.S. comforted American and many Asian markets over the past day ? since it indicated the U.S. Federal Reserve would move slowly to reduce its purchases of financial assets that have buoyed markets by pushing down interest rates.

On Monday, Wall Street rallied after an ISM manufacturing survey for the U.S. that showed a weak rebound in June thanks to new orders and higher production. The survey boosted stock markets as investors estimated it was strong enough to show the recovery is on track, but not so strong as to encourage the Fed to start ending its monetary stimulus program ahead of time.

U.S. markets were expected to open higher Tuesday. Dow and S&P futures were both up 0.2 percent, at 14,914 1,610.20 respectively.

Many Asian stocks rose earlier in the day. Tokyo's Nikkei 225, the region's heavyweight index, jumped 1.8 percent to 14,098.74. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was up 2.6 percent at 4,834.00 after the country's central bank left interest rates unchanged and said the Australian dollar is likely to continue falling, easing pressure on exports.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index reversed early losses to rise 0.6 percent to 2,006.56 after reports on Monday that Chinese manufacturing weakened in June amid a credit crunch. Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent to 20,658.65, led by Chinese banks, which are facing central bank credit restrictions.

Meanwhile, benchmark oil for August delivery rose 16 cents to $98.15 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract rose $1.43 to close at $97.99 a barrel on Monday.

The euro fell to $1.3030 from $1.3065 late Monday in New York.

___

Associated Press writer Kay Johnson in Bangkok contributed to this report.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/f70471f764144b2fab526d39972d37b3/Article_2013-07-02-World-Markets/id-418d45bbca1d4a3392c3c763d9ed9f93

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Monday, July 1, 2013

Kerry: China could have helped with Snowden case

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrives for a press conference at the ASEAN meeting in the International Conference Center in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, Monday, July 1, 2013. Kerry swapped his Mideast peace portfolio for issues in emerging Southeast Asia and road bumps in U.S. relations with Russia and China when he landed Monday in Brunei for a regional security conference. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrives for a press conference at the ASEAN meeting in the International Conference Center in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei, Monday, July 1, 2013. Kerry swapped his Mideast peace portfolio for issues in emerging Southeast Asia and road bumps in U.S. relations with Russia and China when he landed Monday in Brunei for a regional security conference. (AP Photo/Vincent Thian)

(AP) ? U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry says the U.S. thinks China could have "made a difference" in the case of National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden if it had returned him to America to face charges.

But Kerry says the U.S.-China relationship is bigger than one incident and that the two countries cooperate on numerous issues, including North Korea.

Kerry spoke Monday at a Southeast Asia conference in Brunei.

Snowden's efforts to evade U.S. authorities ? taking him from a hotel hideout in Hong Kong to an airport transit zone in Moscow ? have undercut U.S. efforts to strengthen ties with China and threaten to worsen tension with Russia just as President Barack Obama seeks Moscow's cooperation on Syria. Kerry is to meet Tuesday with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.

Associated Press

Source: http://hosted2.ap.org/APDEFAULT/cae69a7523db45408eeb2b3a98c0c9c5/Article_2013-07-01-AS-Kerry/id-aade5e2ab5dc4c9caa3834ec13cd5057

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32GB Verizon Samsung Galaxy S4 price set at $299.99, release date out too

32GB Galaxy S4

Verizon has finally decided to pin down the 32GB Samsung Galaxy S4 price and release date. This is over a month after the smartphone?s 16GB variant landed at the carrier?s doorstep. Customers who have direly been waiting for Samsung and the service provider to break this news are now a step closer to purchasing the device as it is up for pre-order through the latter?s official site at $299.99.

Although the Samsung Galaxy S4 has mostly received acclamation for its top-notch specifications like the 5-inch Super AMOLED full HD touch panel and quad core Qualcomm Snapdragon 600 chipset, it is the device?s features which aim at setting it apart from the rest. Out of the freshly introduced attributes, the ones that managed to stand out demand the complete participation of the onboard 2MP webcam.

For instance, there is Smart Pause which is known to halt a video when users avert their gaze and the main 13MP shutter as well as the front-mounted one can be seen in action simultaneously, while employing the Dual Camera function. The Samsung phone doubles as a remote control for television sets, set-top-boxes and even ACs.

Verizon Listing

The 16GB Samsung Galaxy S4 is currently up for grabs at $199.99. As is obvious, interested parties will have to sign a fresh two-year contract with the carrier, if they wish to buy the device at a relatively low retail value.

But those who would rather wait for the 32GB variant of the Samsung Galaxy S4 must know that it will be released on July 3 at the aforementioned price, clubbed with a two-year contract. If an agreement is not their cup of tea, US residents could lay claim over the handset at $699.99 together with a month-to-month service.

Specifications:

- Platform: Android Jelly Bean
- Processor: 1.9GHz quad core Qualcomm Snapdragon 600
- Display: 5-inch Super AMOLED display
- Resolution: 1920 x 1080 pixels
- Main camera: 13MP with autofocus and zero shutter lag
- Secondary webcam: 2MP full HD
- Memory: 32GB flash, expandable up to 64GB
- Battery: 2,600mAh Li-ion

Source: http://www.techshout.com/mobile-phones/2013/29/32gb-verizon-samsung-galaxy-s4-price-299-99-release-date/

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Sunday, June 30, 2013

Fryer: Prep All-star football game's early start a fair deal

COSTA MESA ? This year's Brea Lions Orange County North-South Prep All-Star Football Game was played on an unusually early date.

Historically, the game at Orange Coast College is played on the same Friday night in early or mid July as the opening night of the Orange County Fair. The fair's continued surge in popularity has made it necessary for nearby Orange Coast College to be used for fair parking. The fair's All-Star game chairman Phil Anton said the parking squeeze necessitated an earlier date for the game.

"We did look at July 5," Anton said. "But that's right after the Fourth of July, and we thought too many people would be out of town. So we went with June 28."

RARE MISS

Grif Amies did something he rarely did during regular-season games. The All-Orange County kicker missed a field goal.

Amies kicked 22 field goals for Corona del Mar in the 2012 season, his senior year. That tied the state record set by Chris Sailer of Notre Dame of Sherman Oaks.

Amies missed a 27-yard attempt with 29 seconds remaining in the second quarter Friday.

Amies missed his final field-goal try of the '12 season. His 57-yard effort late in the fourth quarter of the CIF-SS Southern Division championship game was just short of the target. Earlier he made a 43-yarder, the one that tied for the record, in the Sea Kings' victory over Garden Grove in the Southern Division final at Angel Stadium.

COACHING FRATERNITY

An all-star coaching staff often is a mix of the head coach's assistants from his high school, with perhaps a longtime friend who is head coach at another school. That was the case with the North coaching staff. Fred DiPalma of Katella brought in Anaheim coach Lanny Booher to be the defensive coordinator.

FUNDRAISER

The Brea Lions organize and manage the all-star game for charity. Proceeds from Friday's game will go to the PADRE Foundation (Pediatric Adolescent Diabetic Research & Education), Western Youth Services, Orange County Youth Foundation and other groups.

Past all-star AJ Hoover, Orange County football's leading tackler at Canyon a few seasons ago, spoke at halftime about how he managed his diabetic condition so he could continue to play football.

NOTES

Time Warner Cable channel 101 will carry taped coverage of the game Monday at 8 p.m. Other telecasts are Wednesday, July 6 and July 7 at 8 p.m. ...

Attendance was approximately 4,800 at Orange Coast College, which has a capacity of 7,600. ...

Catch of the game: Cody White, El Toro. In the third quarter, White went up to snare a pass from Corona del Mar's Cayman Carter, pulling the ball through the hands of a North defender. White ran another 20 yards to the South 47 for a first down. ...

The decidedly defensive game did not provide many offensive highlights. Of the few there were, the best might have been a 44-yard pass play by the South. Carter threaded an over-the-middle pass to Scott Hoover of San Juan Hills, who was brought down at the North 9-yard-line at the point of the catch. The South appeared to score on the next play, but the end-zone catch by Cole Robinson of Capistrano Valley was waved off because of an offensive pass interference call. ...

The North-South border for the game had been the 22 Freeway, until this year's game. In a pursuit of improved competitive equity, the border was moved south, to Warner Avenue. The smaller South still won for the fifth time in a row and has won nine of the past 11.

Contact the writer: sfryer@ocregister.com

Source: http://www.ocvarsity.com/articles/game-37950-orange-south.html

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Kerry steps up shuttle talks with Abbas and Netanyahu

By Lesley Wroughton

JERUSALEM (Reuters) - U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry accelerated his Middle East shuttle diplomacy on Friday in the hope of persuading Israel and the Palestinians to resume direct peace negotiations.

After seeing Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in Jordan, Kerry flew by helicopter to Jerusalem for evening talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

In a sign that he may be making progress in his mission to bring the sides together, a State Department official announced late on Friday that Kerry would return to Amman for another meeting with Abbas on Saturday, then return to Israel for additional meetings.

The frenzied back-and-forth is reminiscent of Henry Kissinger's shuttle diplomacy as secretary of state to mediate conflicts in the Middle East throughout the 1970s.

The State Department official said a three-hour meeting with Netanyahu on Friday, the second in as many days, involved a "detailed and substantive conversation about the way forward".

Israeli President Shimon Peres praised Kerry for his determination.

"I know this is difficult, there are many problems, but as far as I'm concerned I can see how (among) people, there is a clear majority for the peace process, a two-state solution, and a great expectation that you will do it and that you can do it," he told Kerry.

Direct negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians broke down in 2010 in a dispute over Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, territories that the Palestinians seek for a future state.

Abbas has insisted that building in the settlements, viewed as illegal by most world powers, be halted before talks resume. He also wants Israel to recognize the boundary of the West Bank as the basis for the future Palestine's border.

MORE TALKS AHEAD

Abbas's spokesman Nabil Abu Rdaineh said a "clear response" was needed from Israel before talks could resume.

Israel wants to keep settlement blocs under any future peace accord and has rejected Abbas's demands as preconditions. But it has also quietly slowed down housing starts in settlements.

Palestinian and U.S. officials did not immediately comment on the results of the Abbas-Kerry meeting. Zeev Elkin, Israel's deputy foreign minister, placed the peacemaking onus on Abbas.

Asked on Israel Radio whether Kerry's visit - his fifth - could bring a breakthrough, Elkin said: "The only one who knows the answer to that question is not Kerry, nor Netanyahu, but Abu Mazen (Abbas)."

Kerry has divulged little of his plan to bring the sides together, but has said he would not have returned to the region if he did not believe there could be progress.

He is also keen to clinch a peacemaking deal before the United Nations General Assembly, which has already granted de facto recognition to a Palestinian state, convenes in September.

Netanyahu is concerned that the Palestinians, in the absence of direct peace talks, could use the U.N. session as a springboard for further statehood moves circumventing Israel.

State Department officials believe the sides will return to negotiations once there is an agreement on confidence-building measures - for example, partial Israeli amnesty for Palestinian security prisoners - and a formula for fresh talks.

Part of the incentive for the Palestinians to return to talks is a $4 billion economic plan led by former British prime minister Tony Blair, whom Kerry also met in Jordan.

The plan involves investments from large private-sector firms that will boost jobs and spur economic growth in agriculture, construction and tourism.

(Additional reporting by Ali Sawafta; Editing by Kevin Liffey)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/kerry-steps-shuttle-talks-abbas-netanyahu-040545091.html

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Saturday, June 29, 2013

First week of testimony in Trayvon case wraps up

SANFORD, Fla. (AP) ? The first week of George Zimmerman's second-degree murder trial wrapped up with testimony from two neighbors and a police officer that seemed to bolster the defense's argument that he was pinned on his back by Trayvon Martin before shooting the teen.

Neighbor Jonathan Good testified Friday that it appeared the unarmed teen was straddling the neighborhood watch volunteer, while another neighbor, Jonathan Manalo, said Zimmerman seemed credible when he said just after the fight that he shot Martin in self-defense. Officer Tim Smith testified that Zimmerman's back side was covered in grass and wetter than his front side.

All three were called as witnesses for prosecutors who are trying to convict him of second-degree murder.

Good, who had perhaps the best view of any witness, said he did not see anyone's head being slammed into the concrete sidewalk, as Zimmerman claims Martin did to him. Good initially testified that it appeared "there were strikes being thrown, punches being thrown," but during detailed questioning he said he saw only "downward" arm movements being made.

Zimmerman has claimed that he fatally shot 17-year-old Martin in February 2012 in self-defense as the Miami-area teen was banging his head into the concrete sidewalk behind the townhomes in a gated community.

Under prosecution questioning, Good said he never saw anyone being attacked that way. Good said he heard a noise behind his townhome and he saw what looked like a tussle when he stepped out onto his patio. He said he yelled: "What's going on? Stop it."

Good testified he saw a person in black clothing on top of another person with "white or red" clothing. He said he couldn't see faces but it looked like the person on the bottom had lighter skin. Martin was black and was wearing a dark hoodie. Zimmerman identifies as Hispanic and was wearing a red jacket. Good was back inside calling 911 when he heard a gunshot.

"It looked like there were strikes being thrown, punches being thrown," Good said.

Later, under cross-examination, he said that it looked like the person on top was straddling the person on bottom in a mixed-martial arts move known as "ground and pound." When defense attorney Mark O'Mara asked him if the person on top was Martin, Good said, "Correct, that's what it looked like." Good also said the person on the bottom yelled for help.

Zimmerman, 29, could get life in prison if convicted of second-degree murder. Zimmerman followed Martin in his truck and called a police dispatch number before he and the teen got into a fight.

Zimmerman has denied the confrontation had anything to do with race, as Martin's family and their supporters have claimed.

Manalo, whose wife had testified earlier in the week, was the first neighbor to step outside and see what happened with his flashlight after he heard a gunshot. He took cellphone photos of a bloodied Zimmerman and Martin's body, and those photos were shown to jurors on Friday. Manalo also described Martin's hands as being under his body.

Manalo said Zimmerman didn't appear shocked and acted calmly. After police officers arrived and handcuffed Zimmerman, the neighborhood watch volunteer asked Manalo to call his wife and tell her what happened.

Manalo started to tell Zimmerman's wife that her husband had been involved in a shooting and was being questioned by police when "he cut me off and said, 'Just tell her I shot someone,'" Manalo said.

Under cross-examination, Manalo said when he asked Zimmerman what happened, the neighborhood watch volunteer told him, "I was defending myself and I shot him."

"From what you could tell at that moment, that seemed completely true?" asked defense attorney Don West.

"Yes," Manalo said.

Smith, the police officer, testified that when he saw Zimmerman after the shooting, the neighborhood watch volunteer's backside was covered in grass and wetter than his front side, bolstering defense attorneys' contention that Martin was on top of Zimmerman.

As he walked to the squad car after he had been handcuffed, Zimmerman told the officer that "he was yelling for help and nobody would come help him," Smith said.

"It was almost a defeated ... a confused look on his face," Smith said.

Smith said Zimmerman described himself as "lightheaded" during the drive to Sanford Police Station but declined an offer to take him to a hospital.

The physician's assistant who treated Zimmerman the next day said that Zimmerman complained of feeling nauseated upon reflecting what had happened. But Lindzee Folgate attributed that to psychological factors rather than any physical condition. She also said it appeared his nose was broken, but it was impossible to say for sure since no X-rays were taken. She recommended he see an ear-and-nose doctor and a psychologist.

When O'Mara asked if abrasions on his head were consistent with someone who had his had slammed into concrete, Folgate said, "it could be consistent, yes."

She also testified that Zimmerman had written on a form reciting his medical history that he was exercising three times a week by doing mixed martial arts, a statement that prosecutor Bernie de la Rionda asked her to repeat.

Paramedic Stacy Livingston, who responded to the shooting scene, testified Zimmerman had a swollen, bleeding nose and two cuts on the back of his head an inch long. When O'Mara asked if Zimmerman should have been concerned with his medical well-being because of his injuries, Livingston said, "Possibly."

When photos of Martin's body were shown on a courtroom projector during Livingston's testimony, Martin's mother, Sybrina Fulton, looked away and blinked back tears.

___

Follow Kyle Hightower on Twitter at http://twitter.com/KHightower

Follow Mike Schneider on Twitter at http://twitter.com/MikeSchneiderAP

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/first-week-testimony-trayvon-case-wraps-070628613.html

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